The future of rhinos—a mix of hope and deep concern

Africa’s rhinos: some gains but big challenges

At the end of 2024, Africa’s rhino population stood at 22,540, including 6,788 black and 15,752 white rhinos. A further 214 black rhinos and 1,299 white rhinos lived in zoos and other facilities worldwide.

Black rhino numbers grew by 5.2%—a hard-won victory for rangers, scientists, and community custodians. However, the white rhino population declined by 11.2%, mainly in South Africa and Namibia.

Most African rhinos now live in small, fenced populations scattered across fragmented landscapes. Drought, policy changes, and funding shortages make management increasingly complex. Yet there are reasons for optimism—new calves born in community conservancies, expanding ranges in Kenya and South Africa, and greater regional cooperation to combat poaching.

These stories reflect a truth at the heart of IFAW’s work: when people are empowered to protect and benefit from the presence of wildlife, rhinos endure.

Asia’s rhinos: success and struggle

In India and Nepal, the greater one-horned rhino continues its remarkable recovery, rising to 4,075 individuals—up from just 100 a century ago. Political commitment, effective law enforcement, and community stewardship have transformed its outlook.

In Indonesia, however, the future of the Javan and Sumatran rhinos remains perilous. Between 2019 and 2023, 26 Javan rhinos were killed for their horns, leaving only about 50 surviving in Ujung Kulon National Park. The Sumatran rhino fares little better, with only 34–47 individuals remaining in fragmented forest habitats. Captive-breeding programmes and habitat protection offer hope, but their survival depends on constant vigilance and investment.

Poaching and illegal trade—the threat persists

Poaching remains the most immediate danger. Between 2021 and 2023, an estimated 676–853 horns entered the illegal trade annually. Though this is lower than earlier years, much of the decline reflects dehorning programmes rather than a true reduction in poaching.

South Africa continues to be the epicentre, accounting for around two-thirds of global horn seizures. Trafficking routes are evolving—shipments now move through Malaysia, Viet Nam, and increasingly through Qatar, the UAE, and even Mongolia.

There are some hopeful indicators: by 2023, the number and total weight of seized horns had dropped by over 75% since 2019, thanks to enhanced collaboration among customs and wildlife-crime units.

Counting the horns

Managing rhino-horn stockpiles remains a challenge. African nations collectively hold between 36.2 and 85.1 tonnes of horn, with South Africa accounting for up to three-quarters of this total—much of it privately owned. In 2024 alone, more than 700 horns were stolen, exposing security and transparency gaps. Strengthened oversight and secure storage are critical to prevent stolen horns from re-entering illegal markets.

Money matters: the economic engine of conservation

Rhino conservation is costly but invaluable. Well-managed populations anchor nature-based tourism, create jobs, and strengthen local economies.

Between 2022 and 2024, 276 live rhinos were traded legally, primarily for conservation translocations. A small number of trophy hunts occurred under tightly regulated quotas, generating revenue for community development and anti-poaching operations.

Innovative finance mechanisms are reshaping conservation funding. The World Bank’s Wildlife Conservation Bond (“Rhino Bond”) mobilised over US$150 million for black rhino conservation in South Africa—linking investor returns to population growth. It’s a promising model for future conservation finance.

People, partnerships, and the path forward

The new African Rhino Conservation Framework (2025–2035) marks a shift from fortress conservation to inclusive, community-centred management. This approach recognises that Indigenous peoples and local communities are essential partners in protecting rhinos and their habitats.

At its core, IFAW’s Room to Roam embodies this philosophy. We work with people closest to wildlife to co-design solutions that support coexistence, improve livelihoods, and secure connected landscapes where rhinos—and communities—can thrive.

From Africa’s community conservancies to India’s floodplains and Indonesia’s forests, one lesson is clear: when conservation brings tangible benefits to people, wildlife has room to roam and a reason to stay.

Rhinos have survived dramatic environmental shifts for more than 50 million years. With continued commitment, collaboration, and creativity, they can endure far into the future.